Sunday, February 8, 2009

"Check, please."

Last Wednesday, the Treasury announced that it is bringing back the seven-year note and would be doubling the number of times it auctions 30-year bonds. So, instead of auctioning-off 30-year bonds to the Chinese - I mean, to investors - four times annually, Treasury now plans to do this eight-times a year.

This coming week, the government will auction $67 billion next week in three-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities, a record amount at a quarterly refunding. (For those keeping score at home that is 1.5 million pounds of $100 bills)

So, if your eyes haven't glazed over yet, and you're still able to ask, "Who cares? What is the significance of this news?''

It's really simple. Our printing presses have been running 24-7, doubling the amount of Reserve Notes in the economy, in anticipation of the passage of the biggest government spending spree in the history of the planet. No cabal of power has ever gotten away with such an incredible plundering of private wealth as will the Obama-Pelosi-Reid clan. Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Brezhnev, Castro? Rank amateurs in the profession of plundering compared to the OPR gang.

This spending spree will need cash. When the US Government goes to transfer $3 billion to ACORN as a payoff - I mean, as part of a job creation package - it will need to give cash to ACORN. While the presses have been printing money non-stop, the government needs to vacuum-up that money , in $20's and $100's. It does so by selling promises to investors that if they hand over one form of worthless paper (Treasury notes, green backs, cash!), the government will give them a different form of worthless paper (a 30-year bond or a 7-year bond) with a promise to confiscate the wealth of future generations to pay off the bond in years to come.

So, we're going to flood the market with bonds - the largest offering at a quarterly refunding in history. And what do we think will happen? Do we think the Chinese or the oil states will line up dutifully, and accept our junk bonds as compensation for the mountains of cash they are sitting on?

They might. And they might not. They've got buckets of US dollars, the value of which is diminishing hourly as we flood the market with more Treasury Notes, so they may bet that a future dollar plus interest might be worth more than a current dollar. But, honestly, I don't know how any investor could reach such a conclusion, unless the interest premium gets jacked. This will be classic supply and demand (with of course back-room deals thrown in to encourage the Chinese to play along).

And that is what we are going to see next week... the story, that the yield that these bonds will need to pay to entice the Chinese and Middle Eastern investors will skyrocket, won't get any coverage in the news... If mentioned at all, it will be spun to show how dire our situation is and why, "this Congress needs to act now."

There aren't that many Micky Mantle rookie cards to be found on e-Bay and for that reason, a Mickey Mantle rookie card in mint condition charges a predictable premium. So, what would happen if we saw printing presses flooding the market with "brand new" Mickey Mantle rookie cards? The price would plummet. We would lose trust and faith that the card for which we were exchanging our cash was genuine. We would lose trust and faith that that card represented a value.

By printing money, we are not creating wealth....we are eroding the trust and faith in the currency that served as the communication of value. Our money used to represent the wealth that was created by us which we freely exchanged with others who, too, had created wealth as evidenced by their possession of wealth coupons (cash). Not so any more. We print money, forgetting what money really is. If money no longer serves as a representation of created-wealth, why do we think anyone will place a value in it?

Next week we will see how badly we have violated the trust that was once found in the sign of the dollar. $

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